Beware! Market Expectations Ahead

I'm always amused at the numerous surveys, polls and other forms of guessing the future of the investment markets -- especially those cleverly disguised as "research". A recent example comes from Charles Schwab & Co. via an article from Marketwatch.com.

The July poll of 1,010 financial advisers by brokerage firm Charles Schwab & Co. Inc. found 58% of investment professionals expect the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to gain ground this year, up from 46% in the previous survey in January.

The article goes on to further slice and dice the survey results in such a manner that might lead the reader to believe that maybe there is some value in this information.  There is not. 

No matter how well written these articles are or whether the research subjects are "professional' investors, the fact remains that no one can predict the future.  Yet, despite this fact, Wall Street spends millions of dollars each year trying to convince you that they can. Another example of this comes from a recent blog post at the Equius Partners website. In his post, author Jeff Troutner, uses a recent Wall Street Journal article to illustrate the futility of trying to make sense of the market or by developing expectations over a short-term time horizon. The answer? I think Mr. Troutner puts it best:

Smart investors know that the consistent winning strategy is to maintain a consistent asset allocation appropriate to their personal risk/return goals over the long run.

I couldn't have said it any better.